SVS Publishes Evaluation of AAA Risk Using New Predictive Scoring System

August 19, 2010—The Society for Vascular Surgery (SVS) announced that results of an evaluation of the data on 3.1 million patients who were at risk for abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) will be published by K. Craig Kent, MD, et al in the September issue of the Journal of Vascular Surgery and are currently available online.

The research was conducted by SVS in collaboration with the Mount Sinai School of Medicine Department of Health Evidence and Policy in New York City. Their work as a data coordinating center for this project was funded by a grant from Life Line Screening (Independence, OH).

Dr. Kent commented, “During our research, we determined that approximately half of the patients with AAA disease are not eligible for screening under current guidelines, so we created a high-yield screening algorithm that expands the target population.” He added that this predictive scoring system also identified aneurysms more efficiently.

According to SVS, data were collected from more than 20,000 screening sites across the nation on patients who had completed a medical and lifestyle questionnaire and were evaluated by ultrasound for the presence of AAAs by Life Line Screening. Risk factors associated with AAA were then identified using multivariable logistic regression analysis.

“Our researchers reaffirmed the well-known risk factors for AAA, including male gender, age, family history, and cardiovascular disease,” said Dr. Kent. “However, our algorithm expands the data to included women, nonsmokers, and individuals aged 65 years and younger. Using this current model on national statistics of risk factor prevalence, we estimated that there are 1.1 million AAAs in the United States, of which, 569,000 are among women, patients who do not smoke, and patients aged 65 or younger.”


The study also showed that smoking cessation and a healthy lifestyle are associated with a lower risk of AAA. Researchers observed an increased rate of AAA that was associated with more years of smoking and the number of cigarettes smoked. Excess weight was also associated with increased risk, whereas exercise and consumption of nuts, vegetables, and fruits were associated with reduced risk. African Americans, Hispanics, and Asians had a lower risk of AAA than whites and Native Americans.

“AAA is an insidious condition with an 85% mortality rate following rupture,” said Dr. Kent. “Screening using noninvasive ultrasound can save lives but its use is advocated only for a limited subset of the population at risk. Patients who are not in an emergency situation prior to rupture have the option to undergo elective surgical repair of their aneurysms, which is a safe and effective intervention.”